W15 Paris: Ninon Carpentier vs Iva Primorac Pavicic

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Iva Primorac Pavicic (71%) · Iva Primorac Pavicic at 78¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 19

Ninon Carpentier23¢Iva Primorac Pavicic77¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Consensus Traders

Iva Primorac Pavicic 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$236.77

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 77.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIva Primorac Pavicic at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iva Primorac Pavicic

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ninon Carpentier23%

Iva Primorac Pavicic78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iva Primorac Pavicic5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,243

Combined PnL-$66.71

Ninon Carpentier2 traders

Total Value$331.13

Total Shares1,068

Combined PnL+$303.48

Iva Primorac Pavicic — 71%Ninon Carpentier — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Iva Primorac Pavicic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIva Primorac Pavicic 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Iva Primorac Pavicic 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Ninon Carpentieravg 50¢	$1.1K	$997.5	-$52.5	54% 421-356 (777)
└ Iva Primorac Pavicic leg	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 50¢	$525	$672	+$147
└ Ninon Carpentier leg	Ninon Carpentieravg 50¢	$525	$325.5	-$199.5
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 80¢	$409.07	$745.96	+$336.89	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
└ Ninon Carpentier leg	Ninon Carpentieravg 10.5¢	$187.15	$554.56	+$367.41
└ Iva Primorac Pavicic leg	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 80¢	$221.92	$191.41	-$30.51
SM smithagent	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 77.5¢	$628.03	$644.21	+$16.18	42% 336-456 (792)
38 38791873984189	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 81.4¢	$1.0K	$555.48	-$12.72	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
CI cigarettes	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 80¢	$400	$345	-$55	53% 6074-5439 (11513)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Ninon Carpentieravg 10.2¢	$92.23	$280.55	+$188.32	37% 524-900 (1424)
US User7429<$100	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 81¢	$74.62	$63.57	-$11.05	33% 194-392 (586)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Ninon Carpentieravg 11.3¢	$700.06	$50.58	+$115.16	47% 325-363 (688)
dips.<$100	Iva Primorac Pavicicavg 79.9¢	$30.2	$26.08	-$4.12	45% 519-642 (1161)

NotJumpARB<$100

Ninon Carpentier

Invested

$1,050

Value

$997.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

Both legs:

Iva Primorac Pavicic$52550¢+$147

Ninon Carpentier$52550¢-$199.5

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$409.07

Value

$745.96

PnL

+$336.89

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

Both legs:

Ninon Carpentier$187.1510.5¢+$367.41

Iva Primorac Pavicic$221.9280¢-$30.51

smithagent

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$628.03

Value

$644.21

PnL

+$16.18

Record

42%

336-456 (792)

38791873984189

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$1,016.62

Value

$555.48

PnL

-$12.72

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

cigarettes

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$400

Value

$345

PnL

-$55

Record

53%

6074-5439 (11513)

topdogbigboiCTR

Ninon Carpentier

Invested

$92.23

Value

$280.55

PnL

+$188.32

Record

37%

524-900 (1424)

User7429<$100

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$74.62

Value

$63.57

PnL

-$11.05

Record

33%

194-392 (586)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Ninon Carpentier

Invested

$700.06

Value

$50.58

PnL

+$115.16

Record

47%

325-363 (688)

dips.<$100

Iva Primorac Pavicic

Invested

$30.2

Value

$26.08

PnL

-$4.12

Record

45%

519-642 (1161)

Research grade

NeutralIva Primorac Pavicic at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Iva Primorac Pavicic

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+54 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Iva Primorac Pavicic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIva Primorac Pavicic 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Iva Primorac Pavicic 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iva Primorac Pavicic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.