W15 Paris: Ninon Carpentier vs Charlotte HACQUARD
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Charlotte HACQUARD (90%) · Charlotte HACQUARD at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22
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Neutral
Charlotte HACQUARD
10
Charlotte HACQUARD 90%
$1.7K
$32.14
62¢ → 75¢
+21% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralCharlotte HACQUARD at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 59.8¢ | $472.53 | $553.89 | +$84.52 | 48% 3948-4293 (8241) |
CI cigarettes | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 71.2¢ | $427 | $450 | +$23 | 53% 7468-6589 (14057) |
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295CTR | Ninon Carpentieravg 39.3¢ | $400 | $300.39 | -$99.61 | 83% 30-6 (36) |
 poshposh | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 62¢ | $140.21 | $146.99 | +$6.78 | 49% 1306-1379 (2685) |
CA CandleHammerDrums | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 55.6¢ | $104.89 | $122.72 | +$17.83 | 49% 629-659 (1288) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 55¢ | $75.79 | $79.24 | +$3.44 | 50% 2835-2864 (5699) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 57.9¢ | $66.55 | $57.5 | -$9.05 | 46% 467-554 (1021) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 29¢ | $10 | $17.24 | +$7.24 | 48% 222-243 (465) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 60¢ | $6.6 | $5.5 | -$1.1 | 45% 963-1156 (2119) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Charlotte HACQUARDavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $5 | -$0.9 | 37% 486-816 (1302) |
Invested
$472.53
Value
$553.89
PnL
+$84.52
Record
48%
3948-4293 (8241)
Invested
$427
Value
$450
PnL
+$23
Record
53%
7468-6589 (14057)
Invested
$400
Value
$300.39
PnL
-$99.61
Record
83%
30-6 (36)
poshposhInvested
$140.21
Value
$146.99
PnL
+$6.78
Record
49%
1306-1379 (2685)
Invested
$104.89
Value
$122.72
PnL
+$17.83
Record
49%
629-659 (1288)
Invested
$75.79
Value
$79.24
PnL
+$3.44
Record
50%
2835-2864 (5699)
Invested
$66.55
Value
$57.5
PnL
-$9.05
Record
46%
467-554 (1021)
Invested
$10
Value
$17.24
PnL
+$7.24
Record
48%
222-243 (465)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$1.1
Record
45%
963-1156 (2119)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.9
Record
37%
486-816 (1302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
38791873984189
Charlotte HACQUARD — $553.89
cigarettes
Charlotte HACQUARD — $450
0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295
CTRNinon Carpentier — $300.39
poshposh
Charlotte HACQUARD — $146.99
CandleHammerDrums
Charlotte HACQUARD — $122.72
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Charlotte HACQUARD — $79.24
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
Charlotte HACQUARD — $57.5
glennyorkshire
Charlotte HACQUARD — $17.24
lryyy
Charlotte HACQUARD — $5.5
SlickRick123
Charlotte HACQUARD — $5