M25 Sheffield: Alexis Canter vs Pierre Antoine Tailleu
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Alexis Canter (80%) · Alexis Canter at 100¢ · $521 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Alexis Canter
5
Alexis Canter 80%
$521
$83.44
38.4¢ → 100¢
+160% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexis Canter at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Alexis Canteravg 37.3¢ | $253.23 | $312.34 | +$59.11 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
 VeryLucky888 | Alexis Canteravg 40¢ | $184.78 | $161.01 | +$24.32 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Pierre Antoine Tailleuavg 56.5¢ | $29.39 | $28.09 | -$1.3 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Alexis Canteravg 37¢ | $13.63 | $16.95 | +$3.32 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
GH ghostorder<$100 | Alexis Canteravg 83¢ | $4.49 | $2.49 | -$2 | 62% 4235-2611 (6846) |
Invested
$253.23
Value
$312.34
PnL
+$59.11
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
VeryLucky888Invested
$184.78
Value
$161.01
PnL
+$24.32
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$29.39
Value
$28.09
PnL
-$1.3
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$13.63
Value
$16.95
PnL
+$3.32
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
Invested
$4.49
Value
$2.49
PnL
-$2
Record
62%
4235-2611 (6846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.