Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yajing Cao, while the market favors Jialan Cai (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W15 Maanshan: Jialan Cai vs Yajing Cao
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yajing Cao (80%) · Yajing Cao at 0.1¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Yajing Cao
5
Yajing Cao 80%
$39.56
-$29.5
Research grade
AvoidYajing Cao at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Jialan Cai 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yajing Cao. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yajing Caoavg 27.8¢ | $52.91 | $27.99 | -$24.92 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Yajing Caoavg 24.9¢ | $10.8 | $6.53 | -$4.27 | 21% 73-279 (352) |
 dips.<$100 | Jialan Caiavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $4.95 | +$2.05 | 41% 176-256 (432) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yajing Caoavg 20¢ | $0.25 | $0.06 | -$0.19 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yajing Caoavg 5¢ | $2.2 | $0.02 | -$2.18 | 49% 123-127 (250) |
Invested
$52.91
Value
$27.99
PnL
-$24.92
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$6.53
PnL
-$4.27
Record
21%
73-279 (352)
dips.<$100Invested
$2.9
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$2.05
Record
41%
176-256 (432)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.19
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.18
Record
49%
123-127 (250)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.