Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Goncalo Da Rosa Castro, while the market favors Tiago Cacao (70%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
M25 Vale do Lobo: Tiago Cacao vs Goncalo Da Rosa Castro
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Goncalo Da Rosa Castro (100%) · Goncalo Da Rosa Castro at 30¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Goncalo Da Rosa Castro
4
Goncalo Da Rosa Castro 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$414.19
16.4¢ → 30.1¢
+84% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGoncalo Da Rosa Castro at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Tiago Cacao 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Tiago Cacaoavg 87.7¢ | $778.77 | $690.54 | -$88.23 | 58% 3746-2703 (6449) |
| └ Tiago Cacao leg | Tiago Cacaoavg 87.7¢ | $524.03 | $416.67 | -$107.35 | |
| └ Goncalo Da Rosa Castro leg | Goncalo Da Rosa Castroavg 28.1¢ | $254.74 | $273.86 | +$19.12 | |
 dips.CTR | Goncalo Da Rosa Castroavg 19.2¢ | $659.35 | $223.14 | -$436.21 | 42% 189-263 (452) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Goncalo Da Rosa Castroavg 18.8¢ | $221.64 | $202.04 | +$33.35 | 48% 752-814 (1566) |
| └ Goncalo Da Rosa Castro leg | Goncalo Da Rosa Castroavg 18.8¢ | $94.51 | $152.34 | +$48.06 | |
| └ Tiago Cacao leg | Tiago Cacaoavg 90.4¢ | $64.41 | $49.7 | -$14.71 | |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Goncalo Da Rosa Castroavg 3.3¢ | $22.82 | $45.11 | +$22.29 | 52% 5313-4817 (10130) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Goncalo Da Rosa Castroavg 3.4¢ | $2.29 | $4.42 | +$2.13 | 48% 407-443 (850) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Goncalo Da Rosa Castroavg 42¢ | $2.84 | $0.44 | -$2.4 | 15% 57-311 (368) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$778.77
Value
$690.54
PnL
-$88.23
Record
58%
3746-2703 (6449)
Both legs:
dips.CTRInvested
$659.35
Value
$223.14
PnL
-$436.21
Record
42%
189-263 (452)
Invested
$221.64
Value
$202.04
PnL
+$33.35
Record
48%
752-814 (1566)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.82
Value
$45.11
PnL
+$22.29
Record
52%
5313-4817 (10130)
Invested
$2.29
Value
$4.42
PnL
+$2.13
Record
48%
407-443 (850)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$0.44
PnL
-$2.4
Record
15%
57-311 (368)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.