W50 Istanbul: Cagla Buyukakcay vs Lidia Encheva
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lidia Encheva (100%) · Lidia Encheva at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
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Neutral
Lidia Encheva
5
Lidia Encheva 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$89.75
51.3¢ → 72.5¢
+41% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralLidia Encheva at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Cagla Buyukakcayavg 57.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$281.03 | 54% 56020-48151 (104171) |
| └ Cagla Buyukakcay leg | Cagla Buyukakcayavg 57.3¢ | $839.14 | $592.65 | -$246.5 | |
| └ Lidia Encheva leg | Lidia Enchevaavg 63.1¢ | $601.45 | $566.91 | -$34.54 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Lidia Enchevaavg 51.3¢ | $271.47 | $309.73 | +$38.26 | 49% 18814-19213 (38027) |
GH ghostorder | Lidia Enchevaavg 48¢ | $96 | $118 | +$22 | 62% 4316-2662 (6978) |
 VeryLucky888 | Lidia Enchevaavg 70¢ | $116.63 | $112.46 | -$4.17 | 58% 41209-29876 (71085) |
TH thestingsnake | Lidia Enchevaavg 33.1¢ | $169.54 | $90.56 | +$34.81 | 60% 3993-2686 (6679) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Lidia Enchevaavg 48¢ | $3.84 | $2.68 | -$1.16 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,440.59
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$281.03
Record
54%
56020-48151 (104171)
Both legs:
Invested
$271.47
Value
$309.73
PnL
+$38.26
Record
49%
18814-19213 (38027)
Invested
$96
Value
$118
PnL
+$22
Record
62%
4316-2662 (6978)
VeryLucky888Invested
$116.63
Value
$112.46
PnL
-$4.17
Record
58%
41209-29876 (71085)
Invested
$169.54
Value
$90.56
PnL
+$34.81
Record
60%
3993-2686 (6679)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.84
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$1.16
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.