M25 Tamworth: Alex Bulte vs Ymerali Ibraimi
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ymerali Ibraimi (40%) · Ymerali Ibraimi at 92¢ · $557 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Ymerali Ibraimi
5
Ymerali Ibraimi 40%
$557.44
-$10
51.4¢ → 91.5¢
+78% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYmerali Ibraimi at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Ymerali Ibraimiavg 54.2¢ | $299.5 | $288.75 | +$19.87 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Alex Bulteavg 41¢ | $107.48 | $104.86 | -$2.62 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Ymerali Ibraimiavg 44.2¢ | $85.42 | $77.26 | -$8.16 | 59% 29955-20673 (50628) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Alex Bulteavg 63¢ | $90.06 | $73.98 | -$16.09 | 60% 9159-6104 (15263) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Alex Bulteavg 52¢ | $15.6 | $12.6 | -$3 | 67% 23053-11450 (34503) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$299.5
Value
$288.75
PnL
+$19.87
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$107.48
Value
$104.86
PnL
-$2.62
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
Invested
$85.42
Value
$77.26
PnL
-$8.16
Record
59%
29955-20673 (50628)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$90.06
Value
$73.98
PnL
-$16.09
Record
60%
9159-6104 (15263)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$3
Record
67%
23053-11450 (34503)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.