W15 Paris: Anna Brunet-Brady vs Hanna Bougouffa
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Brunet-Brady (100%) · Anna Brunet-Brady at 99¢ · $47 held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Anna Brunet-Brady
5
Anna Brunet-Brady 100%
$47.34
$11.16
Research grade
NeutralAnna Brunet-Brady at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Anna Brunet-Brady. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Anna Brunet-Bradyavg 15¢ | $5.44 | $29.81 | +$24.37 | 22% 81-290 (371) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Anna Brunet-Bradyavg 27.9¢ | $17.12 | $9.2 | -$7.92 | 43% 78-102 (180) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Anna Brunet-Bradyavg 24.8¢ | $6.31 | $3.82 | -$2.49 | 24% 202-632 (834) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Anna Brunet-Bradyavg 24¢ | $5 | $3.13 | -$1.87 | 25% 203-620 (823) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Anna Brunet-Bradyavg 25¢ | $2.31 | $1.39 | -$0.92 | 24% 201-642 (843) |
Invested
$5.44
Value
$29.81
PnL
+$24.37
Record
22%
81-290 (371)
Invested
$17.12
Value
$9.2
PnL
-$7.92
Record
43%
78-102 (180)
Invested
$6.31
Value
$3.82
PnL
-$2.49
Record
24%
202-632 (834)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$1.87
Record
25%
203-620 (823)
Invested
$2.31
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$0.92
Record
24%
201-642 (843)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.