M15 João Pessoa: Nicolas Bruna vs Bastian Malla

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Bruna (50%) · Nicolas Bruna at 80¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5

Nicolas Bruna80¢Bastian Malla20¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Bruna

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Bruna 50%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 80¢

-19% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Bruna at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Bruna

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Bruna80%

Bastian Malla20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Bruna2 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares10,056

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Bastian Malla2 traders

Total Value$393.61

Total Shares1,968

Combined PnL-$237.81

Nicolas Bruna — 50%Bastian Malla — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Nicolas Brunaavg 99¢	$10.0K	$7.9K	$-1.9K	95% 22949-1156 (24105)
poshposhCTR	Bastian Mallaavg 33¢	$603.26	$365.45	-$237.81	59% 9693-6689 (16382)
MA MarquisDeMott	Nicolas Brunaavg 99.1¢	$228.92	$184.8	-$44.12	98% 3274-81 (3355)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Bastian Mallaavg 20¢	$28.16	$28.16	+$0	61% 1751-1104 (2855)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$9,999

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

95%

22949-1156 (24105)

poshposhCTR

Bastian Malla

Invested

$603.26

Value

$365.45

PnL

-$237.81

Record

59%

9693-6689 (16382)

MarquisDeMott

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$228.92

Value

$184.8

PnL

-$44.12

Record

98%

3274-81 (3355)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Bastian Malla

Invested

$28.16

Value

$28.16

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1751-1104 (2855)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Bruna at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Bruna

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Bruna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.