Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold James Van Herzeele, while the market favors Oscar Brown (67%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Hua Hin: Oscar Brown vs James Van Herzeele

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold James Van Herzeele (88%) · James Van Herzeele at 33¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Oscar Brown67¢James Van Herzeele33¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

James Van Herzeele

Consensus Traders

James Van Herzeele 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$152.46

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 33¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJames Van Herzeele at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

James Van Herzeele

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Oscar Brown 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oscar Brown67%

James Van Herzeele33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

James Van Herzeele7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,327

Combined PnL+$152.69

Oscar Brown1 trader

Total Value$5.62

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.23

James Van Herzeele — 88%Oscar Brown — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on James Van Herzeele. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJames Van Herzeele 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000James Van Herzeele 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	James Van Herzeeleavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$73.5	54% 386-329 (715)
└ Oscar Brown leg	Oscar Brownavg 50¢	$525	$829.5	+$304.5
└ James Van Herzeele leg	James Van Herzeeleavg 50¢	$525	$294	-$231
TO topdogbigboiCTR	James Van Herzeeleavg 38.5¢	$675.36	$676.06	+$0.7	37% 470-810 (1280)
38 38791873984189CTR	James Van Herzeeleavg 32.6¢	$393.49	$406.94	+$114.86	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	James Van Herzeeleavg 33.5¢	$310.08	$356.55	+$46.47	51% 1975-1866 (3841)
SM smithagentCTR	James Van Herzeeleavg 39¢	$117	$115.5	-$1.5	42% 303-416 (719)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	James Van Herzeeleavg 43¢	$96.32	$86.24	-$10.08	53% 5995-5369 (11364)
dips.CTR<$100	James Van Herzeeleavg 38¢	$23.3	$23.6	+$0.31	45% 470-582 (1052)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	James Van Herzeeleavg 35¢	$19.25	$21.18	+$1.93	47% 303-337 (640)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Oscar Brownavg 67¢	$5.85	$5.62	-$0.23	32% 266-576 (842)

NotJumpARB<$100

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$73.5

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

Both legs:

Oscar Brown$52550¢+$304.5

James Van Herzeele$52550¢-$231

topdogbigboiCTR

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$675.36

Value

$676.06

PnL

+$0.7

Record

37%

470-810 (1280)

38791873984189CTR

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$393.49

Value

$406.94

PnL

+$114.86

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$310.08

Value

$356.55

PnL

+$46.47

Record

51%

1975-1866 (3841)

smithagentCTR

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$117

Value

$115.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

42%

303-416 (719)

cigarettesCTR<$100

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$96.32

Value

$86.24

PnL

-$10.08

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

dips.CTR<$100

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$23.3

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$0.31

Record

45%

470-582 (1052)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

James Van Herzeele

Invested

$19.25

Value

$21.18

PnL

+$1.93

Record

47%

303-337 (640)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Oscar Brown

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$0.23

Record

32%

266-576 (842)

Research grade

NeutralJames Van Herzeele at 33%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

James Van Herzeele

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Oscar Brown 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on James Van Herzeele. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJames Van Herzeele 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000James Van Herzeele 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that James Van Herzeele wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.