Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Benoit Torcq, while the market favors Gijs Brouwer (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M15 Sharm ElSheikh: Gijs Brouwer vs Benoit Torcq

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Benoit Torcq (86%) · Benoit Torcq at 0.1¢ · $853 held · ends Nov 6

Gijs Brouwer>99¢Benoit Torcq<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Benoit Torcq

Consensus Traders

Benoit Torcq 86%

Total Value

$852.74

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBenoit Torcq at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Benoit Torcq

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Gijs Brouwer 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gijs Brouwer100%

Benoit Torcq0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gijs Brouwer1 trader

Total Value$790.62

Total Shares791

Combined PnL+$301.96

Benoit Torcq6 traders

Total Value$62.12

Total Shares4,291

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Gijs Brouwer — 14%Benoit Torcq — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Benoit Torcq. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBenoit Torcq 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBenoit Torcq 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBenoit Torcq 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Benoit Torcq 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Gijs Brouweravg 61.8¢	$488.66	$790.62	+$301.96	59% 30359-21072 (51431)
38 38791873984189CTR	Benoit Torcqavg 37¢	$444.29	$60.5	-$364.56	46% 7901-9318 (17219)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Benoit Torcqavg 34.4¢	$789.06	$1.15	-$787.91	38% 3184-5178 (8362)
poshposhCTR	Benoit Torcqavg 36.9¢	$204.06	$0.28	-$203.78	59% 9906-6885 (16791)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Benoit Torcqavg 38.8¢	$90.74	$0.12	-$90.62	61% 1763-1116 (2879)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Benoit Torcqavg 40.2¢	$60.26	$0.08	-$60.18	54% 8009-6715 (14724)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Benoit Torcqavg 32¢	$1.4	$0	-$1.39	48% 751-806 (1557)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Gijs Brouwer

Invested

$488.66

Value

$790.62

PnL

+$301.96

Record

59%

30359-21072 (51431)

38791873984189CTR

Benoit Torcq

Invested

$444.29

Value

$60.5

PnL

-$364.56

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

topdogbigboiCTR

Benoit Torcq

Invested

$789.06

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$787.91

Record

38%

3184-5178 (8362)

poshposhCTR

Benoit Torcq

Invested

$204.06

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$203.78

Record

59%

9906-6885 (16791)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Benoit Torcq

Invested

$90.74

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$90.62

Record

61%

1763-1116 (2879)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Benoit Torcq

Invested

$60.26

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$60.18

Record

54%

8009-6715 (14724)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Benoit Torcq

Invested

$1.4

Value

PnL

-$1.39

Record

48%

751-806 (1557)

Research grade

AvoidBenoit Torcq at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Benoit Torcq

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Gijs Brouwer 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Benoit Torcq. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBenoit Torcq 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBenoit Torcq 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBenoit Torcq 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Benoit Torcq 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Benoit Torcq wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.