W75 Glasgow: Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Elena Malygina
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tessa Johanna Brockmann (50%) · Tessa Johanna Brockmann at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Tessa Johanna Brockmann
8
Tessa Johanna Brockmann 50%
$3.8K
$1.5K
51.3¢ → 100¢
+95% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralTessa Johanna Brockmann at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Tessa Johanna Brockmannavg 62.8¢ | $1.8K | $2.6K | +$878.42 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
GH ghostorder | Tessa Johanna Brockmannavg 16.2¢ | $150.87 | $862.01 | +$711.14 | 62% 4316-2662 (6978) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Elena Malyginaavg 85.7¢ | $258.76 | $211.4 | -$47.36 | 60% 3995-2686 (6681) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Tessa Johanna Brockmannavg 46.7¢ | $17.76 | $16.53 | -$1.23 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Elena Malyginaavg 26¢ | $13.61 | $13.87 | +$0.25 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Elena Malyginaavg 52.3¢ | $10.11 | $10.92 | +$0.8 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
0X 0x1111111111<$100 | Tessa Johanna Brockmannavg 60¢ | $12.46 | $10.48 | -$1.97 | 61% 1751-1101 (2852) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Elena Malyginaavg 37.9¢ | $2.12 | $1.48 | -$0.64 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
RN1Invested
$1,753.63
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$878.42
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
Invested
$150.87
Value
$862.01
PnL
+$711.14
Record
62%
4316-2662 (6978)
Invested
$258.76
Value
$211.4
PnL
-$47.36
Record
60%
3995-2686 (6681)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$16.53
PnL
-$1.23
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$13.61
Value
$13.87
PnL
+$0.25
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$0.8
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$12.46
Value
$10.48
PnL
-$1.97
Record
61%
1751-1101 (2852)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.12
Value
$1.48
PnL
-$0.64
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Tessa Johanna Brockmann — $2.6K
ghostorder
Tessa Johanna Brockmann — $862.01
thestingsnake
CTRElena Malygina — $211.4
UpTheBlues
Tessa Johanna Brockmann — $16.53
poshposh
CTRElena Malygina — $13.87
VeryLucky888
CTRElena Malygina — $10.92
0x1111111111
Tessa Johanna Brockmann — $10.48
HRTrading
CTRElena Malygina — $1.48