Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Madison Brengle, while the market favors Lea Nilsson (84%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Set Handicap: Madison Brengle (-1.5) vs Lea Nilsson (+1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Madison Brengle (67%) · Madison Brengle at 16¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Madison Brengle16¢Lea Nilsson84¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Madison Brengle

Consensus Traders

Madison Brengle 67%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 16.4¢

-75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMadison Brengle at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Madison Brengle

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lea Nilsson 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Madison Brengle16%

Lea Nilsson84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lea Nilsson2 traders

Total Value$716.32

Total Shares954

Combined PnL-$56.2

Madison Brengle4 traders

Total Value$866.26

Total Shares2,915

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Lea Nilsson — 33%Madison Brengle — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Madison Brengle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLea Nilsson 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpMadison Brengle 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLea Nilsson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Madison Brengle 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AgricultureSecretary	Lea Nilssonavg 65.1¢	$651	$713.66	+$111.54	83% 3785-772 (4557)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR	Madison Brengleavg 99¢	$1.3K	$453.7	-$833.3	95% 22805-1146 (23951)
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81CTR	Madison Brengleavg 36.7¢	$553.5	$375.99	-$177.51	53% 274-239 (513)
MA MarquisDeMottCTR<$100	Madison Brengleavg 99.1¢	$76.31	$26.87	-$49.43	98% 3247-80 (3327)
RO Rock.SanCTR<$100	Madison Brengleavg 80¢	$24	$9.7	-$12.12	89% 11872-1412 (13284)
ZX zxc368	Lea Nilssonavg 64.8¢	$173.64	$2.66	-$167.74	99% 12654-182 (12836)

AgricultureSecretary

Lea Nilsson

Invested

$651

Value

$713.66

PnL

+$111.54

Record

83%

3785-772 (4557)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR

Madison Brengle

Invested

$1,287

Value

$453.7

PnL

-$833.3

Record

95%

22805-1146 (23951)

0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81CTR

Madison Brengle

Invested

$553.5

Value

$375.99

PnL

-$177.51

Record

53%

274-239 (513)

MarquisDeMottCTR<$100

Madison Brengle

Invested

$76.31

Value

$26.87

PnL

-$49.43

Record

98%

3247-80 (3327)

Rock.SanCTR<$100

Madison Brengle

Invested

$24

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$12.12

Record

89%

11872-1412 (13284)

zxc368

Lea Nilsson

Invested

$173.64

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$167.74

Record

99%

12654-182 (12836)

Research grade

AvoidMadison Brengle at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Madison Brengle

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lea Nilsson 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Madison Brengle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLea Nilsson 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpMadison Brengle 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrLea Nilsson 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Madison Brengle 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Madison Brengle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.1%

16.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$453.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

553.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.