W100 New Braunfels, TX: Madison Brengle vs Yuki Naito
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yuki Naito (50%) · Yuki Naito at 100¢ · $840 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yuki Naito
6
Yuki Naito 50%
$840.14
$43.53
72.3¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYuki Naito at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yuki Naitoavg 75.6¢ | $475.42 | $576.09 | +$100.67 | 54% 56057-48191 (104248) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Madison Brengleavg 67.7¢ | $184.38 | $175.49 | +$6.11 | 58% 41280-29927 (71207) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Madison Brengleavg 23¢ | $130.08 | $70.79 | -$59.29 | 49% 671-695 (1366) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yuki Naitoavg 32¢ | $15.42 | $14.46 | -$0.96 | 49% 18862-19270 (38132) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Yuki Naitoavg 56¢ | $3.12 | $1.67 | -$1.45 | 86% 4916-815 (5731) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Madison Brengleavg 5.8¢ | $3.2 | $1.65 | -$1.55 | 60% 4009-2699 (6708) |
RN1Invested
$475.42
Value
$576.09
PnL
+$100.67
Record
54%
56057-48191 (104248)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$184.38
Value
$175.49
PnL
+$6.11
Record
58%
41280-29927 (71207)
Invested
$130.08
Value
$70.79
PnL
-$59.29
Record
49%
671-695 (1366)
Invested
$15.42
Value
$14.46
PnL
-$0.96
Record
49%
18862-19270 (38132)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
$1.67
PnL
-$1.45
Record
86%
4916-815 (5731)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$1.55
Record
60%
4009-2699 (6708)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.