M25 Vale do Lobo: Aleksandr Braynin vs Francisco Rocha

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Francisco Rocha (14%) · Francisco Rocha at 80¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17

Aleksandr Braynin21¢Francisco Rocha79¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Francisco Rocha

Consensus Traders

Francisco Rocha 14%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$491.63

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Rocha at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Rocha

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Aleksandr Braynin21%

Francisco Rocha80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Francisco Rocha1 trader

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares6,075

Combined PnL-$836.04

Aleksandr Braynin6 traders

Total Value$678.79

Total Shares4,243

Combined PnL+$344.41

Francisco Rocha — 14%Aleksandr Braynin — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Rocha. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAleksandr Braynin 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Aleksandr Braynin 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Francisco Rochaavg 93.3¢	$5.7K	$4.8K	-$836.04	35% 171-317 (488)
alpheclabs2CTR	Aleksandr Brayninavg 6.1¢	$142.41	$384.83	+$242.42	48% 67-74 (141)
CI cigarettesCTR	Aleksandr Brayninavg 6.7¢	$50	$123.75	+$73.75	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Aleksandr Brayninavg 14.5¢	$94	$91	-$3	48% 767-833 (1600)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Aleksandr Brayninavg 6.3¢	$16.72	$43.56	+$26.84	50% 132-132 (264)
dips.CTR<$100	Aleksandr Brayninavg 13¢	$26	$28	+$2	42% 189-264 (453)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Aleksandr Brayninavg 11.3¢	$5.25	$7.65	+$2.4	22% 85-293 (378)

omnibus-076daa

Francisco Rocha

Invested

$5,665.36

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$836.04

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

alpheclabs2CTR

Aleksandr Braynin

Invested

$142.41

Value

$384.83

PnL

+$242.42

Record

48%

67-74 (141)

cigarettesCTR

Aleksandr Braynin

Invested

$50

Value

$123.75

PnL

+$73.75

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Aleksandr Braynin

Invested

$94

Value

$91

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

lryyyCTR<$100

Aleksandr Braynin

Invested

$16.72

Value

$43.56

PnL

+$26.84

Record

50%

132-132 (264)

dips.CTR<$100

Aleksandr Braynin

Invested

$26

Value

$28

PnL

+$2

Record

42%

189-264 (453)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Aleksandr Braynin

Invested

$5.25

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$2.4

Record

22%

85-293 (378)

Research grade

NeutralFrancisco Rocha at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Francisco Rocha

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Francisco Rocha. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAleksandr Braynin 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Aleksandr Braynin 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Francisco Rocha wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.