W75 Toronto: Reese Brantmeier vs Valentina Ryser

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Reese Brantmeier (50%) · Reese Brantmeier at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Reese Brantmeier71¢Valentina Ryser29¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Reese Brantmeier

Consensus Traders

Reese Brantmeier 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$61.04

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 71¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralReese Brantmeier at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Reese Brantmeier

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Reese Brantmeier71%

Valentina Ryser29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Reese Brantmeier4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,067

Combined PnL-$10.17

Valentina Ryser4 traders

Total Value$793.24

Total Shares2,123

Combined PnL+$71.2

Reese Brantmeier — 50%Valentina Ryser — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Reese Brantmeieravg 64.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$13.95	48% 771-834 (1605)
RN1ARB<$100	Reese Brantmeieravg 69.1¢	$723.96	$625.27	-$98.69	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
└ Reese Brantmeier leg	Reese Brantmeieravg 69.1¢	$385.65	$365.7	-$19.95
└ Valentina Ryser leg	Valentina Ryseravg 45¢	$338.31	$259.57	-$78.74
38 38791873984189CTR	Valentina Ryseravg 35.1¢	$384.66	$426.83	+$42.17	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Valentina Ryseravg 32.9¢	$330.66	$361.81	+$31.15	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
OM omnibus-076daa	Reese Brantmeieravg 46.1¢	$108.63	$109.62	+$0.99	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Reese Brantmeieravg 70¢	$12.66	$15.11	+$2.44	60% 4042-2728 (6770)
poshposhCTR<$100	Valentina Ryseravg 30¢	$5.43	$2.98	-$2.44	59% 9948-6921 (16869)
VeryLucky888<$100	Reese Brantmeieravg 84¢	$16.8	$1.7	+$0.35	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Valentina Ryseravg 51¢	$1.3	$1.63	+$0.33	86% 5101-864 (5965)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Reese Brantmeier

Invested

$1,813

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$13.95

Record

48%

771-834 (1605)

RN1ARB<$100

Reese Brantmeier

Invested

$723.96

Value

$625.27

PnL

-$98.69

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

Both legs:

Reese Brantmeier$385.6569.1¢-$19.95

Valentina Ryser$338.3145¢-$78.74

38791873984189CTR

Valentina Ryser

Invested

$384.66

Value

$426.83

PnL

+$42.17

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

topdogbigboiCTR

Valentina Ryser

Invested

$330.66

Value

$361.81

PnL

+$31.15

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

omnibus-076daa

Reese Brantmeier

Invested

$108.63

Value

$109.62

PnL

+$0.99

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

thestingsnake<$100

Reese Brantmeier

Invested

$12.66

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$2.44

Record

60%

4042-2728 (6770)

poshposhCTR<$100

Valentina Ryser

Invested

$5.43

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$2.44

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

VeryLucky888<$100

Reese Brantmeier

Invested

$16.8

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Valentina Ryser

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.33

Record

86%

5101-864 (5965)

Research grade

NeutralReese Brantmeier at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Reese Brantmeier

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Reese Brantmeier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.