W15 São Carlos: Victoria Bosio vs Marie Mettraux

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Marie Mettraux (91%) · Marie Mettraux at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 21

Victoria Bosio30¢Marie Mettraux70¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marie Mettraux

Consensus Traders

Marie Mettraux 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$767.78

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 70¢

+45% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarie Mettraux at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marie Mettraux

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Victoria Bosio30%

Marie Mettraux70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marie Mettraux10 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,389

Combined PnL+$767.91

Victoria Bosio1 trader

Total Value$7.41

Total Shares26

Combined PnL-$0.13

Marie Mettraux — 91%Victoria Bosio — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 52.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$30.71	52% 815-747 (1562)
└ Marie Mettraux leg	Marie Mettrauxavg 52.2¢	$801.45	$905.65	+$104.2
└ Victoria Bosio leg	Victoria Bosioavg 50¢	$289.5	$237.39	-$73.49
38 38791873984189	Marie Mettrauxavg 39.7¢	$405.76	$778.81	+$376.85	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Marie Mettrauxavg 58.6¢	$575.96	$657.94	+$81.98	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
TO topdogbigboi	Marie Mettrauxavg 39.8¢	$318.82	$564.83	+$246.01	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Marie Mettrauxavg 54.1¢	$269.22	$301.32	+$32.1	48% 513-548 (1061)
dips.	Marie Mettrauxavg 59¢	$212.44	$225.04	+$12.6	47% 967-1091 (2058)
poshposh	Marie Mettrauxavg 60.3¢	$170.16	$179.32	+$9.16	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
alpheclabs2	Marie Mettrauxavg 38¢	$114	$115.5	+$1.5	45% 284-341 (625)
US User7429<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 39¢	$26.04	$31.38	+$5.34	40% 328-491 (819)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 55.1¢	$25.28	$27.05	+$1.77	44% 365-466 (831)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Marie Mettrauxavg 32¢	$12.61	$13.2	+$0.59	56% 462-367 (829)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Victoria Bosioavg 29¢	$7.54	$7.41	-$0.13	53% 7051-6190 (13241)

NotJumpARB<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$1,326.45

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.71

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

Both legs:

Marie Mettraux$801.4552.2¢+$104.2

Victoria Bosio$289.550¢-$73.49

38791873984189

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$405.76

Value

$778.81

PnL

+$376.85

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$575.96

Value

$657.94

PnL

+$81.98

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

topdogbigboi

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$318.82

Value

$564.83

PnL

+$246.01

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

CandleHammerDrums

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$269.22

Value

$301.32

PnL

+$32.1

Record

48%

513-548 (1061)

dips.

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$212.44

Value

$225.04

PnL

+$12.6

Record

47%

967-1091 (2058)

poshposh

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$170.16

Value

$179.32

PnL

+$9.16

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

alpheclabs2

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$114

Value

$115.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

45%

284-341 (625)

User7429<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$26.04

Value

$31.38

PnL

+$5.34

Record

40%

328-491 (819)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$25.28

Value

$27.05

PnL

+$1.77

Record

44%

365-466 (831)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Marie Mettraux

Invested

$12.61

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.59

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Victoria Bosio

Invested

$7.54

Value

$7.41

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

Research grade

NeutralMarie Mettraux at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marie Mettraux

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marie Mettraux wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.