Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Enrique Bogo, while the market favors Mateus Alves (95%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Enrique Bogo vs Mateus Alves

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Enrique Bogo (89%) · Enrique Bogo at 5.5¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Enrique Bogo6¢Mateus Alves94¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Enrique Bogo

Consensus Traders

Enrique Bogo 89%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$23.93

Smart Money Entry

20.8¢ → 5.5¢

-74% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidEnrique Bogo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Enrique Bogo

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Mateus Alves 95%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Enrique Bogo6%

Mateus Alves95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Enrique Bogo8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,726

Combined PnL-$64.94

Mateus Alves1 trader

Total Value$520.29

Total Shares542

Combined PnL+$41.01

Enrique Bogo — 89%Mateus Alves — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Enrique Bogo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEnrique Bogo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Enrique Bogo 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Enrique Bogoavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$0	54% 439-373 (812)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Mateus Alvesavg 88.4¢	$479.28	$520.29	+$41.01	33% 302-622 (924)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Enrique Bogoavg 9.6¢	$114.31	$83.56	-$30.76	37% 534-922 (1456)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Enrique Bogoavg 9.1¢	$54.25	$41.58	-$12.66	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Enrique Bogoavg 8.7¢	$43.52	$34.92	-$8.6	48% 335-369 (704)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Enrique Bogoavg 10.9¢	$31.17	$19.38	-$11.18	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Enrique Bogoavg 5¢	$3	$4.2	+$1.2	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
dips.CTR<$100	Enrique Bogoavg 13¢	$5.85	$3.15	-$2.7	45% 530-649 (1179)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Enrique Bogoavg 10¢	$0.8	$0.56	-$0.24	43% 344-463 (807)

NotJumpCTR

Enrique Bogo

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Mateus Alves

Invested

$479.28

Value

$520.29

PnL

+$41.01

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

topdogbigboiCTR

Enrique Bogo

Invested

$114.31

Value

$83.56

PnL

-$30.76

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Enrique Bogo

Invested

$54.25

Value

$41.58

PnL

-$12.66

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Enrique Bogo

Invested

$43.52

Value

$34.92

PnL

-$8.6

Record

48%

335-369 (704)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Enrique Bogo

Invested

$31.17

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$11.18

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Enrique Bogo

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

dips.CTR<$100

Enrique Bogo

Invested

$5.85

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$2.7

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

smithagentCTR<$100

Enrique Bogo

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.24

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

Research grade

AvoidEnrique Bogo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Enrique Bogo

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Mateus Alves 95%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Enrique Bogo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEnrique Bogo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Enrique Bogo 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Enrique Bogo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.