M15 Kuala Lumpur: Jayson Blando vs Dev Javia

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Dev Javia (25%) · Dev Javia at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Jayson Blando<1¢Dev Javia>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dev Javia

Consensus Traders

Dev Javia 25%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$5.1

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 100¢

+99% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDev Javia at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dev Javia

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jayson Blando0%

Dev Javia100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dev Javia2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,055

Combined PnL+$20.31

Jayson Blando6 traders

Total Value$25.08

Total Shares1,049

Combined PnL-$25.4

Dev Javia — 25%Jayson Blando — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-75 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Dev Javia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJayson Blando 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Jayson Blando 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Dev Javiaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21	55% 367-301 (668)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jayson Blandoavg 5.3¢	$26.16	$14.8	-$11.36	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
38 38791873984189<$100	Dev Javiaavg 99¢	$20.7	$5.01	-$0.7	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Jayson Blandoavg 5.9¢	$6.59	$3.35	-$3.24	36% 410-719 (1129)
poshposhCTR<$100	Jayson Blandoavg 6¢	$6.14	$3.07	-$3.07	48% 488-534 (1022)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Jayson Blandoavg 6¢	$6	$3	-$3	56% 73-57 (130)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jayson Blandoavg 5¢	$1.25	$0.75	-$0.5	49% 786-829 (1615)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jayson Blandoavg 2¢	$4.34	$0.11	-$4.23	52% 1914-1760 (3674)

NotJump

Dev Javia

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jayson Blando

Invested

$26.16

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$11.36

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

38791873984189<$100

Dev Javia

Invested

$20.7

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.7

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Jayson Blando

Invested

$6.59

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$3.24

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

poshposhCTR<$100

Jayson Blando

Invested

$6.14

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$3.07

Record

48%

488-534 (1022)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Jayson Blando

Invested

Value

PnL

-$3

Record

56%

73-57 (130)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jayson Blando

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jayson Blando

Invested

$4.34

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$4.23

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

Research grade

NeutralDev Javia at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Dev Javia

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-75 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Dev Javia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJayson Blando 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Jayson Blando 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dev Javia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.