M15 Naples, FL: Fadi Bidan vs Koki Nara

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Fadi Bidan (57%) · Fadi Bidan at 56¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 17

Fadi Bidan56¢Koki Nara44¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fadi Bidan

Consensus Traders

Fadi Bidan 57%

Total Value

$195.04

Combined PnL

$44.23

Research grade

NeutralFadi Bidan at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fadi Bidan

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Fadi Bidan56%

Koki Nara44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Koki Nara3 traders

Total Value$107.23

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$31.88

Fadi Bidan4 traders

Total Value$87.81

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$12.34

Koki Nara — 43%Fadi Bidan — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Koki Naraavg 63¢	$55.61	$73.22	+$17.61	48% 927-1003 (1930)
alpheclabs2<$100	Fadi Bidanavg 58¢	$37.88	$39.45	+$1.57	45% 79-95 (174)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Fadi Bidanavg 29.7¢	$22.51	$39.08	+$16.57	24% 103-324 (427)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Koki Naraavg 43¢	$15.05	$29.05	+$14	26% 228-657 (885)
PA Pan9X<$100	Fadi Bidanavg 57¢	$14.25	$8.5	-$5.75	49% 435-456 (891)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Koki Naraavg 50¢	$4.68	$4.95	+$0.27	53% 5440-4884 (10324)
LR lryyy<$100	Fadi Bidanavg 25¢	$0.84	$0.78	-$0.05	50% 171-170 (341)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Koki Nara

Invested

$55.61

Value

$73.22

PnL

+$17.61

Record

48%

927-1003 (1930)

alpheclabs2<$100

Fadi Bidan

Invested

$37.88

Value

$39.45

PnL

+$1.57

Record

45%

79-95 (174)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Fadi Bidan

Invested

$22.51

Value

$39.08

PnL

+$16.57

Record

24%

103-324 (427)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Koki Nara

Invested

$15.05

Value

$29.05

PnL

+$14

Record

26%

228-657 (885)

Pan9X<$100

Fadi Bidan

Invested

$14.25

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$5.75

Record

49%

435-456 (891)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Koki Nara

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

5440-4884 (10324)

lryyy<$100

Fadi Bidan

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

171-170 (341)

Research grade

NeutralFadi Bidan at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Fadi Bidan

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fadi Bidan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.