M15 Pembroke: Blaise Bicknell vs Noah Schachter
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Blaise Bicknell (20%) · Blaise Bicknell at 85¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Blaise Bicknell
5
Blaise Bicknell 20%
$4.1K
$41.38
Research grade
NeutralBlaise Bicknell at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Blaise Bicknell. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Blaise Bicknellavg 84.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$54.65 | 75% 44-15 (59) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noah Schachteravg 14.9¢ | $228.96 | $239.52 | +$10.56 | 58% 41483-30105 (71588) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Noah Schachteravg 16¢ | $218.8 | $191.45 | -$27.35 | 47% 2468-2770 (5238) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noah Schachteravg 14¢ | $32.9 | $36.43 | +$3.52 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noah Schachteravg 14¢ | $4.38 | $4.38 | +$0 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
Invested
$3,538.6
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$54.65
Record
75%
44-15 (59)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$228.96
Value
$239.52
PnL
+$10.56
Record
58%
41483-30105 (71588)
Invested
$218.8
Value
$191.45
PnL
-$27.35
Record
47%
2468-2770 (5238)
Invested
$32.9
Value
$36.43
PnL
+$3.52
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Invested
$4.38
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.