W15 Monastir: Keisija Berzina vs Viola Bedini
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Viola Bedini (67%) · Viola Bedini at 68¢ · $185 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Viola Bedini
6
Viola Bedini 67%
$184.65
$69.47
Research grade
NeutralViola Bedini at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Viola Bedini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Viola Bediniavg 50.6¢ | $75.22 | $125.06 | +$49.84 | 48% 767-833 (1600) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Keisija Berzinaavg 6¢ | $17.72 | $23.74 | +$6.02 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Viola Bediniavg 50¢ | $11.8 | $21 | +$9.2 | 22% 85-293 (378) |
US User7429<$100 | Viola Bediniavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $8.2 | +$0.3 | 16% 58-312 (370) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Viola Bediniavg 32¢ | $2.34 | $6 | +$3.66 | 25% 204-624 (828) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Keisija Berzinaavg 4¢ | $0.2 | $0.65 | +$0.45 | 50% 132-132 (264) |
Invested
$75.22
Value
$125.06
PnL
+$49.84
Record
48%
767-833 (1600)
Invested
$17.72
Value
$23.74
PnL
+$6.02
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$21
PnL
+$9.2
Record
22%
85-293 (378)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$0.3
Record
16%
58-312 (370)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$6
PnL
+$3.66
Record
25%
204-624 (828)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.65
PnL
+$0.45
Record
50%
132-132 (264)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.