M25 Tamworth: Isaac Becroft vs Moerani Bouzige
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Isaac Becroft (100%) · Isaac Becroft at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Isaac Becroft
5
Isaac Becroft 100%
$2.0K
-$280.13
71.7¢ → 100¢
+39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralIsaac Becroft at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Isaac Becroftavg 86.6¢ | $1.2K | $859.24 | -$321.88 | 49% 18756-19165 (37921) |
GH ghostorder | Isaac Becroftavg 67.2¢ | $631.01 | $586.34 | -$42.96 | 62% 4293-2649 (6942) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Isaac Becroftavg 52¢ | $277.04 | $316.41 | +$39.37 | 59% 30140-20887 (51027) |
 poshposh | Isaac Becroftavg 47.5¢ | $142.16 | $188.54 | +$46.38 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Isaac Becroftavg 88¢ | $11.44 | $10.4 | -$1.04 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$1,181.12
Value
$859.24
PnL
-$321.88
Record
49%
18756-19165 (37921)
Invested
$631.01
Value
$586.34
PnL
-$42.96
Record
62%
4293-2649 (6942)
Invested
$277.04
Value
$316.41
PnL
+$39.37
Record
59%
30140-20887 (51027)
poshposhInvested
$142.16
Value
$188.54
PnL
+$46.38
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.44
Value
$10.4
PnL
-$1.04
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.