W75 Toronto: Michaela Bayerlova vs Anastasia Kulikova
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Anastasia Kulikova (22%) · Anastasia Kulikova at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Anastasia Kulikova
9
Anastasia Kulikova 22%
$5.4K
-$638.8
80.1¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAnastasia Kulikova at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Anastasia Kulikovaavg 72.7¢ | $1.6K | $2.1K | +$295.99 | 60% 9374-6357 (15731) |
GH ghostorder | Anastasia Kulikovaavg 90.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$5.7 | 62% 4267-2634 (6901) |
01 01258787xy48487484545122CTR | Michaela Bayerlovaavg 30.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$271.64 | 63% 259-151 (410) |
VL vladivaCTR | Michaela Bayerlovaavg 12.7¢ | $770 | $303.76 | -$466.24 | 26% 61-172 (233) |
 12xmrboltCTR | Michaela Bayerlovaavg 30.3¢ | $224.22 | $203.56 | -$20.66 | 44% 244-306 (550) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Michaela Bayerlovaavg 29.9¢ | $158.34 | $100.5 | -$57.84 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Michaela Bayerlovaavg 29.6¢ | $184.59 | $68.66 | -$115.93 | 58% 5761-4227 (9988) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Michaela Bayerlovaavg 34.7¢ | $26.99 | $19.06 | -$7.93 | 67% 23108-11512 (34620) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Michaela Bayerlovaavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $0.95 | -$0.25 | 55% 8103-6544 (14647) |
poshposhInvested
$1,622.91
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$295.99
Record
60%
9374-6357 (15731)
Invested
$1,460.4
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$5.7
Record
62%
4267-2634 (6901)
Invested
$1,459.13
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$271.64
Record
63%
259-151 (410)
Invested
$770
Value
$303.76
PnL
-$466.24
Record
26%
61-172 (233)
12xmrboltCTRInvested
$224.22
Value
$203.56
PnL
-$20.66
Record
44%
244-306 (550)
Invested
$158.34
Value
$100.5
PnL
-$57.84
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$184.59
Value
$68.66
PnL
-$115.93
Record
58%
5761-4227 (9988)
Invested
$26.99
Value
$19.06
PnL
-$7.93
Record
67%
23108-11512 (34620)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
8103-6544 (14647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
poshposh
Anastasia Kulikova — $2.1K
ghostorder
Anastasia Kulikova — $1.5K
01258787xy48487484545122
CTRMichaela Bayerlova — $1.2K
vladiva
CTRMichaela Bayerlova — $303.76
12xmrbolt
CTRMichaela Bayerlova — $203.56
omnibus-076daa
CTRMichaela Bayerlova — $100.5
berlinskies
CTRMichaela Bayerlova — $68.66
pauleta23
CTRMichaela Bayerlova — $19.06
User7429
CTRMichaela Bayerlova — $0.95