Resolution Proposed
A resolution has been proposed and is in the challenge window. Awaiting UMA oracle settlement.
M25 Valencia: Aren Baybars vs Mario Mansilla Diez
8 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Aren Baybars (38%) · Aren Baybars at 95¢ · $74K held · awaiting resolution
⏳
Pending
21
Aren Baybars 38%
1 arb excluded
$74.3K
$5.8K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 21 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KU kuwkuw | Aren Baybarsavg 72.4¢ | $41.5K | $57.3K | +$15.8K | — 5-1 (6) |
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8 | Aren Baybarsavg 75.4¢ | $5.3K | $6.8K | +$1.5K | 46% 103-123 (226) |
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8 | Aren Baybarsavg 75.5¢ | $2.6K | $3.4K | +$852.12 | 58% 84-61 (145) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Aren Baybarsavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$0 | 95% 23583-1182 (24765) |
NO NotJump | Aren Baybarsavg 60¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$24.5 | 44% 10204-13244 (23448) |
SL SlickRick123CTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 14.4¢ | $2.6K | $917.01 | $-1.7K | 48% 5174-5686 (10860) |
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100 | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 39.2¢ | $3.1K | $720.15 | $-2.2K | 52% 6698-6215 (12913) |
| └ Aren Baybars leg | Aren Baybarsavg 87¢ | $357.92 | $407.08 | -$32.33 | |
| └ Mario Mansilla Diez leg | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 39.2¢ | $2.5K | $313.07 | $-2.1K | |
RO Rock.San | Aren Baybarsavg 99.1¢ | $495.5 | $495 | -$0.5 | 90% 12201-1422 (13623) |
SM smithagentCTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 21.5¢ | $1.7K | $383.8 | $-1.3K | 48% 5267-5648 (10915) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Aren Baybarsavg 73¢ | $147.89 | $200.7 | +$52.81 | 50% 20113-20444 (40557) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 25.3¢ | $1.0K | $197.72 | -$802.75 | 47% 10535-11772 (22307) |
 poshposhCTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 36.6¢ | $1.1K | $151 | -$954.84 | 57% 11829-8912 (20741) |
MA MarquisDeMott<$100 | Aren Baybarsavg 99.1¢ | $76.31 | $76.23 | -$0.08 | 98% 3462-83 (3545) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 30.2¢ | $610.16 | $75.18 | -$420.34 | 48% 14339-15840 (30179) |
LR lryyyCTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 19.9¢ | $287.7 | $72.17 | -$215.53 | 47% 9051-10188 (19239) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 23.7¢ | $225 | $47.5 | -$177.5 | 54% 22016-19110 (41126) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 21.2¢ | $107.07 | $34.61 | -$72.46 | 47% 1285-1476 (2761) |
US User7429CTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 31.9¢ | $122.02 | $19.15 | -$102.87 | 56% 8643-6927 (15570) |
DI dips.CTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 28.2¢ | $23.3K | $11.18 | $-6.3K | 46% 7593-8827 (16420) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 36.6¢ | $20 | $2.73 | -$17.27 | 66% 23792-12038 (35830) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 35.8¢ | $679.86 | $0.34 | -$243.08 | 59% 31310-21988 (53298) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR | Mario Mansilla Diezavg 36.2¢ | $119.36 | $0.16 | -$119.19 | 51% 11618-11037 (22655) |
Invested
$41,465.93
Value
$57.3K
PnL
+$15.8K
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$5,299.57
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
46%
103-123 (226)
Invested
$2,614.92
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$852.12
Record
58%
84-61 (145)
Invested
$2,329.18
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
95%
23583-1182 (24765)
Invested
$1,065.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$24.5
Record
44%
10204-13244 (23448)
Invested
$2,642.92
Value
$917.01
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
48%
5174-5686 (10860)
Invested
$3,092.32
Value
$720.15
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
52%
6698-6215 (12913)
Both legs:
Invested
$495.5
Value
$495
PnL
-$0.5
Record
90%
12201-1422 (13623)
Invested
$1,652.97
Value
$383.8
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
48%
5267-5648 (10915)
Invested
$147.89
Value
$200.7
PnL
+$52.81
Record
50%
20113-20444 (40557)
Invested
$1,000.47
Value
$197.72
PnL
-$802.75
Record
47%
10535-11772 (22307)
poshposhCTRInvested
$1,105.84
Value
$151
PnL
-$954.84
Record
57%
11829-8912 (20741)
Invested
$76.31
Value
$76.23
PnL
-$0.08
Record
98%
3462-83 (3545)
Invested
$610.16
Value
$75.18
PnL
-$420.34
Record
48%
14339-15840 (30179)
Invested
$287.7
Value
$72.17
PnL
-$215.53
Record
47%
9051-10188 (19239)
Invested
$225
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$177.5
Record
54%
22016-19110 (41126)
Invested
$107.07
Value
$34.61
PnL
-$72.46
Record
47%
1285-1476 (2761)
Invested
$122.02
Value
$19.15
PnL
-$102.87
Record
56%
8643-6927 (15570)
Invested
$23,305.93
Value
$11.18
PnL
$-6.3K
Record
46%
7593-8827 (16420)
Invested
$20
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$17.27
Record
66%
23792-12038 (35830)
Invested
$679.86
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$243.08
Record
59%
31310-21988 (53298)
Invested
$119.36
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$119.19
Record
51%
11618-11037 (22655)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
kuwkuw
Aren Baybars — $57.3K
0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8
Aren Baybars — $6.8K
0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8
Aren Baybars — $3.4K
0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105
Aren Baybars — $2.3K
NotJump
Aren Baybars — $1.1K
SlickRick123
CTRMario Mansilla Diez — $917.01
CandleHammerDrums
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Rock.San
Aren Baybars — $495
smithagent
CTRMario Mansilla Diez — $383.8
omnibus-076daa
Aren Baybars — $200.7