W15 Szabolcsveresmart: Sofia Barhacova vs Lujza Zimenova
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Sofia Barhacova (100%) · Sofia Barhacova at 95¢ · $636 held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Sofia Barhacova
3
Sofia Barhacova 100%
$635.62
$41.87
93.5¢ → 94.7¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSofia Barhacova at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CandleHammerDrums | Sofia Barhacovaavg 95¢ | $285 | $299.7 | +$14.85 | 52% 5702-5267 (10969) |
 poshposh | Sofia Barhacovaavg 91.6¢ | $232.07 | $248.01 | +$21.83 | 58% 11432-8282 (19714) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Sofia Barhacovaavg 94¢ | $82.72 | $87.91 | +$5.19 | 46% 7932-9255 (17187) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.