W15 Monastir: Zeinab Ayadi vs Mia Horvit
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mia Horvit (20%) · Mia Horvit at 96¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Mia Horvit
5
Mia Horvit 20%
$224.8
$2.65
Research grade
NeutralMia Horvit at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Mia Horvit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Mia Horvitavg 95.3¢ | $214.65 | $212.85 | -$1.8 | 42% 230-315 (545) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Zeinab Ayadiavg 4¢ | $4 | $5.5 | +$1.5 | 28% 284-730 (1014) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Zeinab Ayadiavg 3¢ | $1.73 | $3.17 | +$1.44 | 28% 278-729 (1007) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Zeinab Ayadiavg 3¢ | $1.57 | $2.88 | +$1.31 | 28% 278-703 (981) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Zeinab Ayadiavg 2¢ | $0.2 | $0.4 | +$0.2 | — 3-1 (4) |
dips.Invested
$214.65
Value
$212.85
PnL
-$1.8
Record
42%
230-315 (545)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
28%
284-730 (1014)
Invested
$1.73
Value
$3.17
PnL
+$1.44
Record
28%
278-729 (1007)
Invested
$1.57
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$1.31
Record
28%
278-703 (981)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
—
3-1 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.