M15 Hua Hin: Abraham Asaba vs Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Abraham Asaba (33%) · Abraham Asaba at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Abraham Asaba>99¢Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Abraham Asaba

Consensus Traders

Abraham Asaba 33%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$344.18

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 99.6¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAbraham Asaba at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Abraham Asaba

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Abraham Asaba100%

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Abraham Asaba3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,517

Combined PnL+$78.37

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,318

Combined PnL-$422.56

Abraham Asaba — 33%Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Abraham Asaba. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAbraham Asaba 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRishabhdev Rajshekar Raman 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Abraham Asabaavg 99¢	$991.68	$960.63	-$31.05	99% 621-9 (630)
NO NotJumpCTR	Rishabhdev Rajshekar Ramanavg 50¢	$1.1K	$959.7	-$90.3	50% 1082-1078 (2160)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Abraham Asabaavg 78¢	$390.98	$499.2	+$108.22	41% 696-1015 (1711)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Rishabhdev Rajshekar Ramanavg 22.8¢	$317.26	$56.95	-$260.31	49% 613-640 (1253)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Rishabhdev Rajshekar Ramanavg 12.7¢	$68.18	$22	-$46.18	48% 3894-4243 (8137)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Abraham Asabaavg 87.3¢	$12.22	$13.43	+$1.2	37% 475-808 (1283)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Rishabhdev Rajshekar Ramanavg 11.6¢	$27.23	$9.63	-$17.6	53% 7425-6554 (13979)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Rishabhdev Rajshekar Ramanavg 11¢	$6.49	$2.42	-$4.07	46% 858-1001 (1859)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Rishabhdev Rajshekar Ramanavg 12.7¢	$6.07	$1.96	-$4.11	50% 2815-2819 (5634)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Abraham Asaba

Invested

$991.68

Value

$960.63

PnL

-$31.05

Record

99%

621-9 (630)

NotJumpCTR

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman

Invested

$1,050

Value

$959.7

PnL

-$90.3

Record

50%

1082-1078 (2160)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Abraham Asaba

Invested

$390.98

Value

$499.2

PnL

+$108.22

Record

41%

696-1015 (1711)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman

Invested

$317.26

Value

$56.95

PnL

-$260.31

Record

49%

613-640 (1253)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman

Invested

$68.18

Value

$22

PnL

-$46.18

Record

48%

3894-4243 (8137)

SlickRick123<$100

Abraham Asaba

Invested

$12.22

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$1.2

Record

37%

475-808 (1283)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman

Invested

$27.23

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$17.6

Record

53%

7425-6554 (13979)

smithagentCTR<$100

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman

Invested

$6.49

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$4.07

Record

46%

858-1001 (1859)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman

Invested

$6.07

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$4.11

Record

50%

2815-2819 (5634)

Research grade

NeutralAbraham Asaba at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Abraham Asaba

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Abraham Asaba. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpAbraham Asaba 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRishabhdev Rajshekar Raman 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Rishabhdev Rajshekar Raman 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Abraham Asaba wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.