W75 Toronto: Ariana Arseneault vs Sara Saito
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sara Saito (100%) · Sara Saito at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Sara Saito
5
Sara Saito 100%
$1.8K
-$409.92
64.5¢ → 100¢
+55% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSara Saito at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Sara Saitoavg 64.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$321.07 | 54% 55758-47850 (103608) |
GH ghostorder | Sara Saitoavg 67¢ | $281.4 | $186.9 | -$94.5 | 62% 4278-2637 (6915) |
 poshposh<$100 | Sara Saitoavg 15¢ | $5.31 | $15.76 | +$10.45 | 60% 9411-6401 (15812) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Sara Saitoavg 87¢ | $11.31 | $5.79 | -$5.53 | 60% 3975-2677 (6652) |
0X 0x1111111111<$100 | Sara Saitoavg 33¢ | $2.08 | $2.81 | +$0.73 | 61% 1733-1088 (2821) |
RN1Invested
$1,894.71
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$321.07
Record
54%
55758-47850 (103608)
Invested
$281.4
Value
$186.9
PnL
-$94.5
Record
62%
4278-2637 (6915)
poshposh<$100Invested
$5.31
Value
$15.76
PnL
+$10.45
Record
60%
9411-6401 (15812)
Invested
$11.31
Value
$5.79
PnL
-$5.53
Record
60%
3975-2677 (6652)
Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.81
PnL
+$0.73
Record
61%
1733-1088 (2821)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.