Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Haruna Arakawa, while the market favors Wushuang Zheng (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W75 Sydney: Haruna Arakawa vs Wushuang Zheng

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Haruna Arakawa (78%) · Haruna Arakawa at 1.0¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Haruna Arakawa1¢Wushuang Zheng99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Haruna Arakawa

Consensus Traders

Haruna Arakawa 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$752.72

Smart Money Entry

30.7¢ → 1¢

-97% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHaruna Arakawa at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Haruna Arakawa

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Wushuang Zheng 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Haruna Arakawa1%

Wushuang Zheng99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Haruna Arakawa7 traders

Total Value$602.26

Total Shares4,795

Combined PnL-$851.93

Wushuang Zheng2 traders

Total Value$393.65

Total Shares403

Combined PnL+$99.21

Haruna Arakawa — 78%Wushuang Zheng — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Haruna Arakawa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHaruna Arakawa 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Haruna Arakawa 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Wushuang Zhengavg 50¢	$1.1K	$882	-$168	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
└ Wushuang Zheng leg	Wushuang Zhengavg 50¢	$525	$588	+$63
└ Haruna Arakawa leg	Haruna Arakawaavg 50¢	$525	$294	-$231
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Haruna Arakawaavg 34.7¢	$557.88	$273.37	-$284.51	39% 1498-2355 (3853)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Wushuang Zhengavg 72.1¢	$171.32	$232.05	+$60.73	41% 687-1000 (1687)
OM omnibus-076daa	Wushuang Zhengavg 74.4¢	$123.12	$161.6	+$38.48	46% 597-711 (1308)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Haruna Arakawaavg 29.8¢	$225.75	$128.96	-$96.8	49% 605-633 (1238)
38 38791873984189CTR	Haruna Arakawaavg 28.1¢	$239.93	$118.36	-$51.71	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Haruna Arakawaavg 29.9¢	$336.48	$67.55	-$268.93	50% 2792-2794 (5586)
CI cigarettesCTR	Haruna Arakawaavg 26¢	$157.06	$9.68	-$147.38	53% 7402-6535 (13937)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Haruna Arakawaavg 27¢	$5.54	$3.49	-$2.05	45% 440-539 (979)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Haruna Arakawaavg 28¢	$1.4	$0.85	-$0.55	46% 844-988 (1832)

NotJumpARB<$100

Wushuang Zheng

Invested

$1,050

Value

$882

PnL

-$168

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

Both legs:

Wushuang Zheng$52550¢+$63

Haruna Arakawa$52550¢-$231

topdogbigboiCTR

Haruna Arakawa

Invested

$557.88

Value

$273.37

PnL

-$284.51

Record

39%

1498-2355 (3853)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Wushuang Zheng

Invested

$171.32

Value

$232.05

PnL

+$60.73

Record

41%

687-1000 (1687)

omnibus-076daa

Wushuang Zheng

Invested

$123.12

Value

$161.6

PnL

+$38.48

Record

46%

597-711 (1308)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Haruna Arakawa

Invested

$225.75

Value

$128.96

PnL

-$96.8

Record

49%

605-633 (1238)

38791873984189CTR

Haruna Arakawa

Invested

$239.93

Value

$118.36

PnL

-$51.71

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Haruna Arakawa

Invested

$336.48

Value

$67.55

PnL

-$268.93

Record

50%

2792-2794 (5586)

cigarettesCTR

Haruna Arakawa

Invested

$157.06

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$147.38

Record

53%

7402-6535 (13937)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Haruna Arakawa

Invested

$5.54

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$2.05

Record

45%

440-539 (979)

smithagentCTR<$100

Haruna Arakawa

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.55

Record

46%

844-988 (1832)

Research grade

AvoidHaruna Arakawa at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Haruna Arakawa

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Wushuang Zheng 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Haruna Arakawa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHaruna Arakawa 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Haruna Arakawa 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Haruna Arakawa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4666.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

4766.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.