Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Liuyan An, while the market favors Anna Yang (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W15 Maanshan: Liuyan An vs Anna Yang
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Liuyan An (60%) · Liuyan An at 37¢ · $160 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Liuyan An
5
Liuyan An 60%
$160
-$51.99
39.4¢ → 36.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLiuyan An at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Anna Yang 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Anna Yangavg 53.6¢ | $64.31 | $111.54 | +$47.22 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Liuyan Anavg 44.7¢ | $131.76 | $31.84 | -$99.92 | 54% 1588-1335 (2923) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Anna Yangavg 71¢ | $9.89 | $12.95 | +$3.06 | 34% 158-308 (466) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Liuyan Anavg 7.9¢ | $3.55 | $3.15 | -$0.4 | 21% 73-279 (352) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Liuyan Anavg 29¢ | $2.59 | $0.63 | -$1.96 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
Invested
$64.31
Value
$111.54
PnL
+$47.22
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$131.76
Value
$31.84
PnL
-$99.92
Record
54%
1588-1335 (2923)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$12.95
PnL
+$3.06
Record
34%
158-308 (466)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.4
Record
21%
73-279 (352)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$1.96
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.