Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patricio Alvarado, while the market favors Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi (100%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Guadalajara: Patricio Alvarado vs Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Patricio Alvarado (44%) · Patricio Alvarado at 0.5¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 9

Patricio Alvarado<1¢Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patricio Alvarado

Consensus Traders

Patricio Alvarado 44%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatricio Alvarado at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patricio Alvarado

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Patricio Alvarado1%

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi5 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,216

Combined PnL+$6.4K

Patricio Alvarado4 traders

Total Value$35.76

Total Shares6,158

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi — 56%Patricio Alvarado — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Patricio Alvarado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatricio Alvarado 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPatricio Alvarado 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAlberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospiavg 29¢	$2.4K	$7.8K	+$5.6K	48% 188-203 (391)
NO NotJump	Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospiavg 30¢	$300	$995	+$695	43% 9961-12947 (22908)
poshposh	Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospiavg 29.6¢	$71.43	$220.31	+$148.88	58% 11657-8494 (20151)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospiavg 32¢	$57.71	$99.87	+$42.17	47% 10297-11504 (21801)
DI dips.CTR	Patricio Alvaradoavg 54.1¢	$1.4K	$12.49	$-1.3K	46% 7434-8639 (16073)
SM smithagentCTR	Patricio Alvaradoavg 57.1¢	$1.2K	$10.85	$-1.2K	48% 5180-5537 (10717)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Patricio Alvaradoavg 64.6¢	$948.2	$7.34	-$940.86	53% 6652-5916 (12568)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospiavg 89¢	$5.34	$5.97	+$0.63	95% 23393-1178 (24571)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Patricio Alvaradoavg 57.8¢	$13.59	$5.08	-$8.51	47% 8896-9990 (18886)

alpheclabs2

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi

Invested

$2,439.67

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

48%

188-203 (391)

NotJump

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi

Invested

$300

Value

$995

PnL

+$695

Record

43%

9961-12947 (22908)

poshposh

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi

Invested

$71.43

Value

$220.31

PnL

+$148.88

Record

58%

11657-8494 (20151)

topdogbigboi<$100

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi

Invested

$57.71

Value

$99.87

PnL

+$42.17

Record

47%

10297-11504 (21801)

dips.CTR

Patricio Alvarado

Invested

$1,351.38

Value

$12.49

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

46%

7434-8639 (16073)

smithagentCTR

Patricio Alvarado

Invested

$1,238.9

Value

$10.85

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

48%

5180-5537 (10717)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Patricio Alvarado

Invested

$948.2

Value

$7.34

PnL

-$940.86

Record

53%

6652-5916 (12568)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.97

PnL

+$0.63

Record

95%

23393-1178 (24571)

lryyyCTR<$100

Patricio Alvarado

Invested

$13.59

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$8.51

Record

47%

8896-9990 (18886)

Research grade

AvoidPatricio Alvarado at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Patricio Alvarado

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Patricio Alvarado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePatricio Alvarado 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpPatricio Alvarado 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAlberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Alberto Odiseo Alvarado Berrospi 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patricio Alvarado wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.