Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Julian Alonso, while the market favors Alejandro Arcila (60%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
M25 Las Vegas, NV: Julian Alonso vs Alejandro Arcila
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Julian Alonso (50%) · Julian Alonso at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Julian Alonso
2
Julian Alonso 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$34.13
Research grade
NeutralJulian Alonso at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Alejandro Arcila 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO gol702CTR | Julian Alonsoavg 40.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$35.06 | — 1-2 (3) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Alejandro Arcilaavg 42.4¢ | $257.81 | $402.93 | +$145.12 | 54% 55758-47850 (103608) |
| └ Alejandro Arcila leg | Alejandro Arcilaavg 42.4¢ | $197.29 | $279.39 | +$82.1 | |
| └ Julian Alonso leg | Julian Alonsoavg 19.6¢ | $60.52 | $123.54 | +$63.02 | |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Alejandro Arcilaavg 99¢ | $57.22 | $58.14 | +$0.92 | 95% 22900-1152 (24052) |
Invested
$2,035.06
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$35.06
Record
—
1-2 (3)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$257.81
Value
$402.93
PnL
+$145.12
Record
54%
55758-47850 (103608)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.22
Value
$58.14
PnL
+$0.92
Record
95%
22900-1152 (24052)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.