W50 Chihuahua: Camille Allegre vs Ipek Oz
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Ipek Oz (75%) · Ipek Oz at 59¢ · $899 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Ipek Oz
4
Ipek Oz 75%
1 arb excluded
$899.32
-$100.51
88.6¢ → 59.2¢
-33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralIpek Oz at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Ipek Oz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Ipek Ozavg 85.4¢ | $628.14 | $632 | +$74.84 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
| └ Camille Allegre leg | Camille Allegreavg 18.7¢ | $168.09 | $327.35 | +$179.56 | |
| └ Ipek Oz leg | Ipek Ozavg 85.4¢ | $408.94 | $304.65 | -$104.72 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Ipek Ozavg 88.8¢ | $358.76 | $258.15 | -$100.61 | 53% 1821-1628 (3449) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Ipek Ozavg 73.8¢ | $4 | $3.75 | -$0.25 | 28% 161-410 (571) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Ipek Ozavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $3.45 | -$0.9 | 50% 107-108 (215) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Camille Allegreavg 10¢ | $0.71 | $1.96 | +$1.25 | 24% 111-348 (459) |
Invested
$628.14
Value
$632
PnL
+$74.84
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Both legs:
Invested
$358.76
Value
$258.15
PnL
-$100.61
Record
53%
1821-1628 (3449)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
28%
161-410 (571)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.9
Record
50%
107-108 (215)
Invested
$0.71
Value
$1.96
PnL
+$1.25
Record
24%
111-348 (459)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.