M15 Zamora: Rafael De Alba vs Kai Thompson

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kai Thompson (42%) · Kai Thompson at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19

Rafael De Alba<1¢Kai Thompson>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kai Thompson

Consensus Traders

Kai Thompson 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$27.89

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKai Thompson at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kai Thompson

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rafael De Alba0%

Kai Thompson100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kai Thompson5 traders

Total Value$209.91

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$2.33

Rafael De Alba7 traders

Total Value$69.4

Total Shares279

Combined PnL-$30.22

Kai Thompson — 42%Rafael De Alba — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kai Thompson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kai Thompson) and the top 1000 (6 on Rafael De Alba) disagree here.

ctrRafael De Alba 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKai Thompson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rafael De Alba 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 50¢	$1.1K	$882	-$168	54% 529-444 (973)
└ Kai Thompson leg	Kai Thompsonavg 50¢	$525	$661.5	+$136.5
└ Rafael De Alba leg	Rafael De Albaavg 50¢	$525	$220.5	-$304.5
RN1	Kai Thompsonavg 63¢	$153.08	$153.08	+$0	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
poshposhARB<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 13¢	$66.15	$90.28	+$24.13	48% 652-699 (1351)
└ Rafael De Alba leg	Rafael De Albaavg 13¢	$39	$61.5	+$22.5
└ Kai Thompson leg	Kai Thompsonavg 75¢	$27.15	$28.78	+$1.63
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 50.6¢	$25.32	$26	+$0.68	34% 349-676 (1025)
dips.<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 48¢	$24.99	$24.47	-$0.52	46% 593-709 (1302)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 42¢	$17.64	$18.8	+$1.16	30% 233-531 (764)
SM smithagent<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 87¢	$10.44	$11.99	+$1.55	43% 400-536 (936)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 56¢	$10	$11.25	+$1.25	44% 111-142 (253)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 17.5¢	$7.84	$9.68	+$1.84	48% 367-391 (758)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Kai Thompsonavg 99¢	$9.07	$9.11	+$0.05	98% 288-5 (293)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 18.8¢	$6.96	$7.77	+$0.81	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 41.5¢	$24.6	$7.11	-$17.5	36% 559-993 (1552)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 25¢	$21.56	$0.03	-$10.78	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
US User7429CTR<$100	Rafael De Albaavg 46¢	$6.44	$0.01	-$6.43	35% 217-405 (622)

NotJumpARB<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$1,050

Value

$882

PnL

-$168

Record

54%

529-444 (973)

Both legs:

Kai Thompson$52550¢+$136.5

Rafael De Alba$52550¢-$304.5

RN1

Kai Thompson

Invested

$153.08

Value

$153.08

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

poshposhARB<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$66.15

Value

$90.28

PnL

+$24.13

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

Both legs:

Rafael De Alba$3913¢+$22.5

Kai Thompson$27.1575¢+$1.63

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$25.32

Value

$26

PnL

+$0.68

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

dips.<$100

Kai Thompson

Invested

$24.99

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$0.52

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$17.64

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$1.16

Record

30%

233-531 (764)

smithagent<$100

Kai Thompson

Invested

$10.44

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$1.55

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

glennyorkshire<$100

Kai Thompson

Invested

$10

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

44%

111-142 (253)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$7.84

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$1.84

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Kai Thompson

Invested

$9.07

Value

$9.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

288-5 (293)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$6.96

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$0.81

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$24.6

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$17.5

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$21.56

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$10.78

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

User7429CTR<$100

Rafael De Alba

Invested

$6.44

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.43

Record

35%

217-405 (622)

Research grade

NeutralKai Thompson at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kai Thompson

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Kai Thompson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kai Thompson) and the top 1000 (6 on Rafael De Alba) disagree here.

ctrRafael De Alba 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKai Thompson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rafael De Alba 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kai Thompson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.