W75 Toronto: Ayana Akli vs Vivian Yang

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ayana Akli (71%) · Ayana Akli at 100¢ · $810 held · ends Nov 3

Ayana Akli>99¢Vivian Yang<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ayana Akli

Consensus Traders

Ayana Akli 71%

Total Value

$810.37

Combined PnL

$375.7

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 100¢

+75% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAyana Akli at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ayana Akli

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ayana Akli100%

Vivian Yang0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ayana Akli5 traders

Total Value$782.58

Total Shares837

Combined PnL+$383.28

Vivian Yang2 traders

Total Value$27.8

Total Shares253

Combined PnL-$7.58

Ayana Akli — 71%Vivian Yang — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Ayana Akliavg 42.7¢	$200	$417.14	+$217.14	53% 3085-2710 (5795)
GH ghostorder	Ayana Akliavg 68.5¢	$448.19	$178.03	+$132.58	62% 4235-2611 (6846)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Ayana Akliavg 98.7¢	$107.61	$108.95	+$1.34	95% 22786-1146 (23932)
poshposh<$100	Ayana Akliavg 66.7¢	$38.82	$49.48	+$10.65	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Ayana Akliavg 44.5¢	$48.77	$28.99	+$21.57	60% 3908-2649 (6557)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Vivian Yangavg 14¢	$34.79	$27.34	-$7.45	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Vivian Yangavg 14¢	$2.35	$0.46	-$0.13	58% 40420-29201 (69621)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Ayana Akli

Invested

$200

Value

$417.14

PnL

+$217.14

Record

53%

3085-2710 (5795)

ghostorder

Ayana Akli

Invested

$448.19

Value

$178.03

PnL

+$132.58

Record

62%

4235-2611 (6846)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Ayana Akli

Invested

$107.61

Value

$108.95

PnL

+$1.34

Record

95%

22786-1146 (23932)

poshposh<$100

Ayana Akli

Invested

$38.82

Value

$49.48

PnL

+$10.65

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

thestingsnake<$100

Ayana Akli

Invested

$48.77

Value

$28.99

PnL

+$21.57

Record

60%

3908-2649 (6557)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Vivian Yang

Invested

$34.79

Value

$27.34

PnL

-$7.45

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Vivian Yang

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

Research grade

NeutralAyana Akli at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ayana Akli

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ayana Akli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.