W75 Toronto: Ayana Akli vs Katherine Sebov

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Katherine Sebov (58%) · Katherine Sebov at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7

Ayana Akli<1¢Katherine Sebov>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Katherine Sebov

Consensus Traders

Katherine Sebov 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$230.36

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 99.6¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralKatherine Sebov at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Katherine Sebov

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ayana Akli0%

Katherine Sebov100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Katherine Sebov7 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,923

Combined PnL+$7.55

Ayana Akli5 traders

Total Value$256.17

Total Shares1,326

Combined PnL-$237.91

Katherine Sebov — 58%Ayana Akli — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Katherine Sebovavg 93.9¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	+$54.07	66% 557-291 (848)
12xmrbolt	Katherine Sebovavg 64.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$35.55	44% 246-308 (554)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Ayana Akliavg 38¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$628.82	48% 922-993 (1915)
└ Ayana Akli leg	Ayana Akliavg 38¢	$1.6K	$796.42	-$756.75
└ Katherine Sebov leg	Katherine Sebovavg 38¢	$114.38	$242.31	+$127.93
MI milktea3	Katherine Sebovavg 96¢	$201.6	$176.4	-$25.2	70% 2090-877 (2967)
RN1CTR	Ayana Akliavg 62¢	$155.62	$140.56	-$15.06	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
PA pauleta23<$100	Katherine Sebovavg 87.6¢	$74.85	$84.98	+$10.13	67% 23335-11740 (35075)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Ayana Akliavg 44.3¢	$69.09	$72.59	+$3.5	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
poshposhCTR<$100	Ayana Akliavg 31.2¢	$32.87	$38.86	+$5.99	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
AN anon122<$100	Katherine Sebovavg 65¢	$19.5	$23.7	+$4.2	45% 30-37 (67)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Katherine Sebovavg 52¢	$10.87	$9.2	-$1.67	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Katherine Sebovavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.98	+$1.57	85% 5317-914 (6231)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Ayana Akliavg 29.7¢	$235.11	$3.96	-$231.15	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
US User7429CTR<$100	Ayana Akliavg 4¢	$5.73	$0.2	-$1.19	55% 8305-6697 (15002)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Katherine Sebov

Invested

$3,027.17

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$54.07

Record

66%

557-291 (848)

12xmrbolt

Katherine Sebov

Invested

$1,137

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$35.55

Record

44%

246-308 (554)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Ayana Akli

Invested

$1,667.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$628.82

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

Both legs:

Ayana Akli$1,553.1738¢-$756.75

Katherine Sebov$114.3838¢+$127.93

milktea3

Katherine Sebov

Invested

$201.6

Value

$176.4

PnL

-$25.2

Record

70%

2090-877 (2967)

RN1CTR

Ayana Akli

Invested

$155.62

Value

$140.56

PnL

-$15.06

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

pauleta23<$100

Katherine Sebov

Invested

$74.85

Value

$84.98

PnL

+$10.13

Record

67%

23335-11740 (35075)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Ayana Akli

Invested

$69.09

Value

$72.59

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

poshposhCTR<$100

Ayana Akli

Invested

$32.87

Value

$38.86

PnL

+$5.99

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

anon122<$100

Katherine Sebov

Invested

$19.5

Value

$23.7

PnL

+$4.2

Record

45%

30-37 (67)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Katherine Sebov

Invested

$10.87

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$1.67

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Katherine Sebov

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$1.57

Record

85%

5317-914 (6231)

topdogbigboiCTR

Ayana Akli

Invested

$235.11

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$231.15

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

User7429CTR<$100

Ayana Akli

Invested

$5.73

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.19

Record

55%

8305-6697 (15002)

Research grade

NeutralKatherine Sebov at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Katherine Sebov

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Katherine Sebov wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.