W75 Toronto: Ayana Akli vs Hiromi Abe
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Ayana Akli (67%) · Ayana Akli at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Ayana Akli
3
Ayana Akli 67%
$2.4K
-$611.7
95.5¢ → 97.1¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAyana Akli at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18 | Ayana Akliavg 95.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$37.77 | 65% 538-284 (822) |
 RN1CTR | Hiromi Abeavg 46.5¢ | $692.91 | $43.22 | -$649.69 | 54% 56041-48162 (104203) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Ayana Akliavg 95¢ | $10 | $10.22 | +$0.22 | 67% 23211-11607 (34818) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.