M25 Tamworth: Enzo Aguiard vs Jeremy Beale

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jeremy Beale (83%) · Jeremy Beale at 100¢ · $424 held · ends Nov 5

Enzo Aguiard<1¢Jeremy Beale>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jeremy Beale

Consensus Traders

Jeremy Beale 83%

Total Value

$424.14

Combined PnL

-$232.82

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 100¢

+103% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJeremy Beale at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jeremy Beale

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Enzo Aguiard0%

Jeremy Beale100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jeremy Beale5 traders

Total Value$393.08

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL-$241.18

Enzo Aguiard1 trader

Total Value$31.06

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$8.36

Jeremy Beale — 83%Enzo Aguiard — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Jeremy Bealeavg 46.4¢	$346	$227.54	-$118.46	53% 3117-2749 (5866)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Jeremy Bealeavg 48¢	$120	$76.25	-$43.75	59% 30140-20887 (51027)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jeremy Bealeavg 50.4¢	$122.95	$74.35	-$48.6	49% 18756-19165 (37921)
poshposhCTR<$100	Enzo Aguiardavg 50.8¢	$22.71	$31.06	+$8.36	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Jeremy Bealeavg 99¢	$43.56	$13.42	-$30.14	95% 22921-1156 (24077)
US User7429<$100	Jeremy Bealeavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.53	-$0.23	55% 8132-6565 (14697)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Jeremy Beale

Invested

$346

Value

$227.54

PnL

-$118.46

Record

53%

3117-2749 (5866)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Jeremy Beale

Invested

$120

Value

$76.25

PnL

-$43.75

Record

59%

30140-20887 (51027)

omnibus-076daa

Jeremy Beale

Invested

$122.95

Value

$74.35

PnL

-$48.6

Record

49%

18756-19165 (37921)

poshposhCTR<$100

Enzo Aguiard

Invested

$22.71

Value

$31.06

PnL

+$8.36

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Jeremy Beale

Invested

$43.56

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$30.14

Record

95%

22921-1156 (24077)

User7429<$100

Jeremy Beale

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

8132-6565 (14697)

Research grade

NeutralJeremy Beale at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Jeremy Beale

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jeremy Beale wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.