W50 Chihuahua: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Ana Carmen Zamburek
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta (50%) · Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17
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Neutral
Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta
8
Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta 50%
$2.1K
$487.36
70.9¢ → 98.5¢
+39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralIngrid Carolina Millan Acosta at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Ingrid Carolina Millan Acostaavg 69.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$362.94 | 58% 3770-2728 (6498) |
38 38791873984189 | Ingrid Carolina Millan Acostaavg 71.7¢ | $244.1 | $323.83 | +$91.26 | 48% 937-1010 (1947) |
CI cigarettes | Ingrid Carolina Millan Acostaavg 78¢ | $221.47 | $278.52 | +$57.05 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
TH thestingsnake | Ingrid Carolina Millan Acostaavg 73.3¢ | $100.74 | $61.56 | -$16.33 | 20% 91-354 (445) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Ana Carmen Zamburekavg 17.8¢ | $9.52 | $3.74 | -$5.77 | 24% 106-331 (437) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Ana Carmen Zamburekavg 14¢ | $0.33 | $1.55 | +$1.22 | 54% 1644-1413 (3057) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Ana Carmen Zamburekavg 30.5¢ | $3.66 | $0.84 | -$2.82 | 51% 78-75 (153) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Ana Carmen Zamburekavg 1.9¢ | $0.93 | $0.74 | -$0.2 | 50% 176-175 (351) |
RN1Invested
$1,039.35
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$362.94
Record
58%
3770-2728 (6498)
Invested
$244.1
Value
$323.83
PnL
+$91.26
Record
48%
937-1010 (1947)
Invested
$221.47
Value
$278.52
PnL
+$57.05
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Invested
$100.74
Value
$61.56
PnL
-$16.33
Record
20%
91-354 (445)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$5.77
Record
24%
106-331 (437)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$1.22
Record
54%
1644-1413 (3057)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$2.82
Record
51%
78-75 (153)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
176-175 (351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta — $1.4K
38791873984189
Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta — $323.83
cigarettes
Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta — $278.52
thestingsnake
Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta — $61.56
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRAna Carmen Zamburek — $3.74
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRAna Carmen Zamburek — $1.55
Eulhunter
CTRAna Carmen Zamburek — $0.84
lryyy
CTRAna Carmen Zamburek — $0.74