M25 Santa Cruz do Sul: Valerio Aboian vs Juan Bautista Torres

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Bautista Torres (86%) · Juan Bautista Torres at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21

Valerio Aboian18¢Juan Bautista Torres82¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Bautista Torres

Consensus Traders

Juan Bautista Torres 86%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$187.56

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 82.5¢

+42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

6 of 7 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Valerio Aboian18%

Juan Bautista Torres83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Bautista Torres6 traders

Total Value$755.87

Total Shares1,023

Combined PnL+$195.25

Valerio Aboian1 trader

Total Value$74.48

Total Shares141

Combined PnL-$7.69

Juan Bautista Torres — 86%Valerio Aboian — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Juan Bautista Torres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuan Bautista Torres 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Juan Bautista Torres 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$63	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 50¢	$525	$619.5	+$94.5
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 50¢	$525	$493.5	-$31.5
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 78¢	$384.69	$384.68	-$0.01	45% 135-162 (297)
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 78¢	$299.99	$305.76	+$5.77
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 22¢	$84.7	$78.92	-$5.77
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 54.2¢	$401.43	$365.89	-$19.34	46% 492-580 (1072)
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 54.2¢	$193.31	$287.34	+$93.98
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 47.6¢	$191.87	$78.55	-$113.32
CA CandleHammerDrums	Juan Bautista Torresavg 47.7¢	$421.06	$357.33	+$159.32	48% 517-551 (1068)
38 38791873984189	Juan Bautista Torresavg 77.6¢	$560.42	$296.5	+$37.37	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
RN1ARB<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 76.2¢	$109.25	$111.41	+$2.15	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
└ Juan Bautista Torres leg	Juan Bautista Torresavg 76.2¢	$55.79	$56.73	+$0.94
└ Valerio Aboian leg	Valerio Aboianavg 22¢	$53.46	$54.68	+$1.22
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Valerio Aboianavg 58.5¢	$82.17	$74.48	-$7.69	38% 544-884 (1428)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 47¢	$64.82	$64.82	+$0	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Juan Bautista Torresavg 50¢	$136	$18.8	-$1.05	69% 132-60 (192)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 51¢	$10	$9.21	-$0.78	44% 161-201 (362)
alpheclabs2<$100	Juan Bautista Torresavg 45¢	$8.81	$9.2	+$0.39	46% 289-344 (633)

NotJumpARB<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$63

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

Valerio Aboian$52550¢+$94.5

Juan Bautista Torres$52550¢-$31.5

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554ARB<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$384.69

Value

$384.68

PnL

-$0.01

Record

45%

135-162 (297)

Both legs:

Juan Bautista Torres$299.9978¢+$5.77

Valerio Aboian$84.722¢-$5.77

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$401.43

Value

$365.89

PnL

-$19.34

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

Both legs:

Juan Bautista Torres$193.3154.2¢+$93.98

Valerio Aboian$191.8747.6¢-$113.32

CandleHammerDrums

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$421.06

Value

$357.33

PnL

+$159.32

Record

48%

517-551 (1068)

38791873984189

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$560.42

Value

$296.5

PnL

+$37.37

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

RN1ARB<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$109.25

Value

$111.41

PnL

+$2.15

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Both legs:

Juan Bautista Torres$55.7976.2¢+$0.94

Valerio Aboian$53.4622¢+$1.22

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Valerio Aboian

Invested

$82.17

Value

$74.48

PnL

-$7.69

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$64.82

Value

$64.82

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$136

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$1.05

Record

69%

132-60 (192)

glennyorkshire<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$10

Value

$9.21

PnL

-$0.78

Record

44%

161-201 (362)

alpheclabs2<$100

Juan Bautista Torres

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0.39

Record

46%

289-344 (633)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Bautista Torres at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Bautista Torres

6 of 7 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Juan Bautista Torres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJuan Bautista Torres 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJuan Bautista Torres 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Juan Bautista Torres 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Bautista Torres wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.