M15 Monastir: Wissam Abderrahman vs Aziz Dougaz
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wissam Abderrahman (67%) · Wissam Abderrahman at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
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Neutral
Wissam Abderrahman
9
Wissam Abderrahman 67%
$1.8K
$159.09
74.4¢ → 100¢
+34% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralWissam Abderrahman at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Wissam Abderrahmanavg 96.5¢ | $842.5 | $872.76 | +$30.26 | 53% 24327-21391 (45718) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Aziz Dougazavg 48¢ | $304.51 | $531.22 | +$226.71 | 59% 33210-23381 (56591) |
38 38791873984189 | Wissam Abderrahmanavg 45.2¢ | $229.29 | $270.62 | +$41.34 | 48% 62379-67237 (129616) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100 | Aziz Dougazavg 51.5¢ | $87.3 | $30.54 | -$56.76 | 64% 5375-2993 (8368) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Wissam Abderrahmanavg 53.9¢ | $101.98 | $29.34 | -$72.64 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
 BasquetipsterCTR<$100 | Aziz Dougazavg 86.6¢ | $20.41 | $19.92 | -$0.5 | 53% 1791-1560 (3351) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Wissam Abderrahmanavg 14.6¢ | $14.6 | $15.5 | +$0.9 | 49% 1821-1900 (3721) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Wissam Abderrahmanavg 42¢ | $16.19 | $5.98 | -$10.22 | 46% 1782-2092 (3874) |
US User7429<$100 | Wissam Abderrahmanavg 15.6¢ | $0.78 | $0.78 | -$0.01 | 56% 9223-7357 (16580) |
Invested
$842.5
Value
$872.76
PnL
+$30.26
Record
53%
24327-21391 (45718)
Invested
$304.51
Value
$531.22
PnL
+$226.71
Record
59%
33210-23381 (56591)
Invested
$229.29
Value
$270.62
PnL
+$41.34
Record
48%
62379-67237 (129616)
Invested
$87.3
Value
$30.54
PnL
-$56.76
Record
64%
5375-2993 (8368)
Invested
$101.98
Value
$29.34
PnL
-$72.64
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
BasquetipsterCTR<$100Invested
$20.41
Value
$19.92
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
1791-1560 (3351)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$15.5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
49%
1821-1900 (3721)
Invested
$16.19
Value
$5.98
PnL
-$10.22
Record
46%
1782-2092 (3874)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$0.01
Record
56%
9223-7357 (16580)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
cigarettes
Wissam Abderrahman — $872.76
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRAziz Dougaz — $531.22
38791873984189
Wissam Abderrahman — $270.62
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
CTRAziz Dougaz — $30.54
omnibus-076daa
Wissam Abderrahman — $29.34
Basquetipster
CTRAziz Dougaz — $19.92
Venusian
Wissam Abderrahman — $15.5
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Wissam Abderrahman — $5.98
User7429
Wissam Abderrahman — $0.78