Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$3.0K
$263.3
91.2¢ → 99¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerrieDavis | Yesavg 87.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$199.4 | 36% 2033-3639 (5672) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Yesavg 96¢ | $1.9K | $1.1K | +$60.2 | 50% 142-142 (284) |
 classified | Yesavg 97.1¢ | $122.56 | $124.96 | +$1.96 | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
BA badatthisCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.5¢ | $1.74 | $3.48 | +$1.74 | 65% 2218-1179 (3397) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.