Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$4.2K
$3.68
78.3¢ → 80.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Yesavg 78.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$30.99 | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
 paddaa | Yesavg 76.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$63.25 | 57% 824-632 (1456) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 79.5¢ | $741.8 | $710.87 | -$28.61 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $1.26 | $1.29 | +$0.03 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.