Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$2.5K
$29.54
81.3¢ → 83¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Yesavg 80.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$44.54 | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960 | Yesavg 83¢ | $579.33 | $579.33 | +$0 | 61% 148-94 (242) |
88 881112CTR | Noavg 20¢ | $160 | $136 | -$16 | 37% 556-928 (1484) |
 StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | $17 | $17 | +$1 | 50% 142-142 (284) |
classifiedInvested
$1,757.07
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$44.54
Record
58%
829-603 (1432)
Invested
$579.33
Value
$579.33
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
148-94 (242)
Invested
$160
Value
$136
PnL
-$16
Record
37%
556-928 (1484)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100Invested
$17
Value
$17
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
142-142 (284)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.