Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.8K
$115.5
92.6¢ → 94.4¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Yesavg 93.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$47.55 | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
 MEPP | Yesavg 90.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$85.09 | 64% 624-348 (972) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 94.2¢ | $630.2 | $600 | -$19.91 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 93.2¢ | $134.51 | $136.34 | +$1.84 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $5.63 | $6.57 | +$0.94 | 36% 2032-3635 (5667) |
classifiedInvested
$1,592.95
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$47.55
Record
58%
829-603 (1432)
MEPPInvested
$1,284.69
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$85.09
Record
64%
624-348 (972)
IstarothInvested
$630.2
Value
$600
PnL
-$19.91
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$134.51
Value
$136.34
PnL
+$1.84
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
Invested
$5.63
Value
$6.57
PnL
+$0.94
Record
36%
2032-3635 (5667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.