Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 23

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Mon, Nov 23, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$1.13

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 45.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$322

Total Shares708

Combined PnL-$0.37

Yes2 traders

Total Value$32

Total Shares52

Combined PnL-$0.76

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 58.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.9	21% 300-1144 (1444)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.7¢	$654.97	$607.66	-$47.56
└ No leg	Noavg 42.2¢	$470.51	$507.32	+$36.66
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 43.9¢	$393.47	$313.4	-$0.33	42% 5211-7141 (12352)
classified<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$27.5	$31	-$1	58% 829-603 (1432)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$8.65	$8.6	-$0.04	57% 13602-10422 (24024)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$0.61	$1	+$0.24	50% 142-142 (284)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,130.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.9

Record

21%

300-1144 (1444)

Both legs:

Yes$654.9758.7¢-$47.56

No$470.5142.2¢+$36.66

lissartterCTR

Invested

$393.47

Value

$313.4

PnL

-$0.33

Record

42%

5211-7141 (12352)

classified<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.5

Value

$31

PnL

-$1

Record

58%

829-603 (1432)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$8.65

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

13602-10422 (24024)

StupidMonkeyyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

142-142 (284)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.5%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$115.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

215.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.