Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$3.51

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 92¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,799

Combined PnL-$23.51

No1 trader

Total Value$59.96

Total Shares749

Combined PnL+$20

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lissartter	Yesavg 94.8¢	$926.52	$896.27	-$27.25	42% 5202-7132 (12334)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 95¢	$475	$465	+$2.5	56% 15272-11802 (27074)
Istaroth	Yesavg 95¢	$330.88	$328.51	+$1.24	23% 290-994 (1284)
StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100	Noavg 6.3¢	$72.3	$59.96	+$20	50% 142-142 (284)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$926.52

Value

$896.27

PnL

-$27.25

Record

42%

5202-7132 (12334)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$475

Value

$465

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

15272-11802 (27074)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$330.88

Value

$328.51

PnL

+$1.24

Record

23%

290-994 (1284)

StupidMonkeyyyCTR<$100

Invested

$72.3

Value

$59.96

PnL

+$20

Record

50%

142-142 (284)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.0%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.