Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$4.7K
-$79.4
95.3¢ → 93¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Yesavg 95.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$9.44 | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 96¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$36.23 | 42% 5202-7132 (12334) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Yesavg 93.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$8.24 | 50% 142-142 (284) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 95.7¢ | $957.49 | $931.99 | -$25.5 | 56% 15272-11802 (27074) |
classifiedInvested
$1,503.53
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$9.44
Record
58%
829-603 (1432)
Invested
$1,247.88
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$36.23
Record
42%
5202-7132 (12334)
StupidMonkeyyyInvested
$1,109.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$8.24
Record
50%
142-142 (284)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$957.49
Value
$931.99
PnL
-$25.5
Record
56%
15272-11802 (27074)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.