Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 69¢ · $136 held · ended Oct 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$135.56
$10.78
56.8¢ → 68.5¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $85.25 | $66.63 | -$18.62 | 78% 230-66 (296) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $1.35 | $46.2 | +$44.85 | 18% 3802-17226 (21028) |
 clazzy1<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18.9 | $14.39 | -$4.52 | 62% 388-241 (629) |
0X 0x6528e4dfAE95B1a096C3ccE287Fb44C96C802006-1790896469009CTR<$100 | Yesavg 72.8¢ | $19.29 | $8.35 | -$10.94 | 16% 5-26 (31) |
Udonsan<$100Invested
$85.25
Value
$66.63
PnL
-$18.62
Record
78%
230-66 (296)
2B9S<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$46.2
PnL
+$44.85
Record
18%
3802-17226 (21028)
clazzy1<$100Invested
$18.9
Value
$14.39
PnL
-$4.52
Record
62%
388-241 (629)
Invested
$19.29
Value
$8.35
PnL
-$10.94
Record
16%
5-26 (31)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.